The Dow 30 Industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all closed at record levels on Friday. This occurred even while two of the largest companies in the world, Apple
The markets are climbing the proverbial “wall of worry” with concerns about the Fed announcing its tapering program next week, the Delta variant still impacting the economy, fears that inflation will continue at an elevated level longer than anticipated and major additional spending by the Federal government. For the week the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.4%, 1.3% and 2.7%, respectively.
Stocks have performed better under Biden than Trump where it matters
By President Trump’s favorite measure of success President Biden’s post-election stock market gains have largely beaten Trump’s equivalent at just short of their one-year election anniversary.
Using the returns from the time the election was called in Biden’s favor to late October vs. when Trump was called the winner the evening of his, Biden’s Dow performance is 1.4% lower than Trump’s but Biden’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq returns are 10.6% and 1.3% better than Trump’s. In absolute returns they have risen 26.5%, 31.2% and 30.3% under Biden.
In using inauguration dates Trump’s Dow and Nasdaq returns are ahead of Biden’s by 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, but Biden’s S&P 500 return has returned 7.2% more than Trump’s. Since the S&P 500 is the broadest measure of the markets and is the benchmark most often used to gauge performance, it matters the most to investors. The stock market has not “disintegrated and disappeared” under Biden as Trump proclaimed.
Biden’s Dow performance has trailed Trump’s
On the Tuesday in 2016 the election was held between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton the Dow 30 Industrials closed at 18,333. The Index responded positively to Trump’s victory, called on the same evening, and continued on a fairly steady uptrend into late September 2017.
- From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 5,101 or 27.8%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 3,702 or 18.8%
On the Tuesday of the election between Trump and Biden the Index closed at 28,323. It also increased the next three days with Biden in the lead but it had not been called. The Monday after the election was called the Index gapped upwards and rose until August until hitting some weakness until mid-October. Biden’s returns have trailed Trump’s from their elections being called and inauguration by 1.4% and 3.0%, respectively.
- From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 8,340 or 30.3%
- From Friday, November 6, close: Up 7,496 or 26.5%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 4,889 or 15.8%
Biden’s S&P 500’s performance has trounced Trump’s
Trump saw a smaller gain in the S&P 500 vs. the Dow 30. It rose 20.6% from his election day and 14.0% from his inauguration to late October 2017.
- From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 442 or 20.6%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 317 or 14.0%
Between Biden’s election being called and last Friday the S&P 500 returns were better than the Dow’s. Biden’s market returns were also substantially above Trump’s by 10.6% from when the election was called and 7.2% from his inauguration.
- From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 1,236 or 36.7%
- From Friday, November 6, close: Up 1,096 or 31.2%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 806 or 21.2%
The NASDAQ’s performance is split between Biden and Trump
The post-election to late October timeframe saw the NASDAQ with the highest performing Index for Trump, coming in at 29.0%, but was still short of Biden’s 30.3%.
- From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 1,508 or 29.0%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 1,161 or 21.0%
Trump’s return of 21.0% since his inauguration is the metric that has the best outperformance vs. Biden at 17.4%.
- From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 4,338 or 38.9%
- From Friday, November 6, close: Up 3,603 or 30.3%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 2,301 or 17.4%