Initial Claims Trend Turns Up
Initial claims bottomed at 711,000 on November 7, 2020 and have been rising in a choppy fashion since then.
Continued claims lag initial claims by a week. Continued claims appear to have bottomed and likely have.
A number of people dropped off the rolls because they expired all of their weekly benefits.
Although Congress extended emergency benefits such as PUA and PEUC, those programs expired for a short while. Numbers for those programs are even more distorted so I will wait for a bit to comment.
Jobs Recovery Has Gone Into Reverse
Last Friday I noted Jobs Decline for the First Time in 8 Months
Today’s unemployment claims number strengthen the idea the jobs recovery has stalled.